To shout again into "device null" as the long tail of bloggers do: the current developments: because I discovered that a genius named Chrilly Donninger (also in english wikipedia) writes phantastic Amazon reviews on "all things prediction, etc.", I ordered 'Forecasting', a book I bluntly like to call a Grand Œuvre of forecasting literature.
Since then, I hack some piece of R code, and I feel fresh and near to the topic.
In a broader sense, I had a big questions obsessing me:
The dichotomy between emotion and reason: It seems to be the key to understand society: emotions comes first. Therefore literature over tractatus, therefore love over job, therefore fear over reason. The cognitive avarice, as somone told, over deep analysis. You can not argue with people, you have to seduce them. This seems the greater insight of the 20th century. We know, and we can argue with great passion ;-), that we can not overthrow this kind of man. We might need to fix it, this is where the judgemt and decision theory comunity aims at. We live in an age where the most safest intuition (= heuristics) is "resemble the 'nature', therefore bio, hence the green party. Yes, I do not have an answer but a question: Since emotions are what nature imposed on us, can we once overthrow them in favor of modern processing devices of information?
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