Tuesday, July 7, 2009

60m east-europeans less

Europe’s 2008 population of 736 million is projected
to decline to 685 million by 2050 because
of its low country-level TFRs and in spite of
continuing net immigration. The decline, however,
is expected to take place primarily in eastern
and southern Europe. Eastern Europe’s 2008
population of 295 million is projected to decrease
to 231 million by mid-century, while southern
Europe is projected to decrease from 155 million
to 150 million.
http://www.prb.org/pdf08/63.3highlights.pdf

Some thoughts on that:
Austrian economy, that highly gained from the new EU member states, will suffer this demographic shift.
Western and Northern Europe are stable, but require higher automatisation of semis-skilled labor.
More semi-skilled immigration from the south - racist parties gain but society is to old for Nazi-cruelties.
US still dominates the century, due its founding myth its open to skilled labor immigration and is highly competitive.
India, Brazil are the new force, if China doesn't make it to become a mature service economy before it grows too old. Russia will decline.

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