Belief Nets

Based on the Bayesian Theorem we are able to model a network of evidences and influences to conduce a prediction: a Bayesian Network or Belief Net (BN). Somebody found out, such BNs beat other techniques in predicting certain sportsbets.

BNs allow an expert to map his expertise as causal dependencies leading to a certain prediction.

While Humans have shown skills in doing so, there is evidence that they fail in computing the overall estimate well.

While the domain expert and data available to us build up the nodes and their node probability table (NPT), the reasoning is left to Bayesian Theorem. Machine Prediction with a human designer.

A second benefit is the documentation of the evidences and influences leading to prediction and decisions. The state of the art is in combining Decision Analysis and Belief Nets in the model.

With University of Pittsburgs GeNie modeling tool, the world of Belief Nets opens for experimenting also to the interested layman.

Lets share some experiments!